Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 7, 2022 at 09:35 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 6. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 322 and 387 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. A disturbance, possibly CME related, started early on August 7.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 116.3 - decreasing 36.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 107.29). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.5). Three hour interval K indices: 100000001 (planetary), 21112322 (Boulder), 30010001 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 172) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 117) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13068 [S16W69] decayed in the trailing spot section while the two major leading penumbrae merged into one.
Region 13070 [N13W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13071 [S19E19] was quiet and stable.
Region 13072 [S23W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13073 [S34W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13074 [S16E55] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7748 [N20E68] gained spots and was quiet.
S7750 [N15E03] was quiet and stable.
New region S7752 [N23E23] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7753 [N16E83] rotated into view with a mature spot.
New region S7754 [S25E01] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial hemisphere coronal hole (CH1092) was Earth facing on August 5-6.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are likely on August 6 due to a disturbance that began early in the day. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on August 8-9 due to effects from CH1092.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnigh4t Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13067 2022.07.25
2022.07.26
      N21W84           location: N19W79
13068 2022.07.27
2022.07.28
7 8 5 S15W66 0190 DAO CKO

location: S16W69

13070 2022.07.31
2022.08.01
  1   N15W20 0002   AXX location: N13W18
13071 2022.08.01
2022.08.03
1 4 2 S19E17 0110 HSX CSO area: 0140
S7743 2022.08.01       N21W42            
13072 2022.08.03
2022.08.04
4 12 5 S23W53 0040 CAO CAO area: 0070

location: S23W56

13073 2022.08.03
2022.08.05
4 7 3 S34W57 0040 CAO DAO area: 0070

location: S34W53

S7746 2022.08.03       S22W06            
13074 2022.08.04
2022.08.05
3 5 4 S17E54 0120 HSX CSO

area: 0180

location: S16E55

S7748 2022.08.05   6 3 N20E68 0012   BXO  
S7749 2022.08.05       S32W10          
S7750 2022.08.05   12 3 N15E03 0020   BXO  
S7751 2022.08.05       S16W43          
S7752 2022.08.06   4 1 N23E23 0008   AXX    
S7753 2022.08.06   1 1 N16E83 0130   HSX    
S7754 2022.08.06   2   S25E01 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 19 62 27  
Sunspot number: 69 172 117  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 44 97 62  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 76 95 94  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 105.1 (1)   9.2 (2A) / 47.3 (2B) / 100.6 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (5.7)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.