The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on August 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 382 and 668 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A disturbance, source unidentified, started early in the day. Another and stronger disturbance, a high speed stream associated with CH1092, was observed beginning at DSCOVR at 10:47 UT.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 116.1 - decreasing 44.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 107.41). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 24.5). Three hour interval K indices: 12344446 (planetary), 13344435 (Boulder), 02334455 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 178) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 133) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13068 [S16W82] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.6 @ 23:06 UT.
Region 13071 [S19E06] was quiet and stable.
Region 13072 [S23W69] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare:
C1.1 @ 22:35 UT
Region 13073 [S34W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13074 [S16E42] was quiet and stable.
New region 13075 [N20E55] rotated into view on August 5 and was numbered
2 days later by SWPC.
New region 13076 [N15E70] rotated into view on August 6 with SWPC
numbering the region the following day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7750 [N16W13] was quiet and stable.
S7752 [N24E08] was quiet and stable.
S7754 [S19W18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7755 [N29E58] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S7756 [S18E20] emerged with several spots.
New region S7757 [S32W28] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage region.
A large filament eruption spanning from N10 to S40 and from E05 to E25 began at 17:49 in SDO/EIT imagery with the eruption peaking near 22h UT. LASCO images covering the hours after 22 UT are not yet available. A coronal hole (CH1093) formed after the eruption.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
August 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial hemisphere coronal hole (CH1092) was Earth facing on August 5-6. A coronal hole (CH1093) formed after a filament eruption mainly in the southeast quadrant and will be Earth facing on August 7-8.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are likely on August 8-9 due to effects from CH1092. Quiet to unsettled is expected for August 10-11 due to effects from CH1093.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnigh4t | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13068 | 2022.07.27 2022.07.28 |
3 | 2 | 1 | S15W83 | 0090 | HAX | HKX |
 |
 |
|
| 13070 | 2022.07.31 2022.08.01 |
N15W34 |
 |
location: N13W31 | |||||||
| 13071 | 2022.08.01 2022.08.03 |
1 | 3 | 2 | S19E06 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0130 |
| S7743 | 2022.08.01 | N21W55 | |||||||||
| 13072 | 2022.08.03 2022.08.04 |
4 | 5 | 3 | S23W67 | 0030 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: S23W69 |
| 13073 | 2022.08.03 2022.08.05 |
4 | 5 | 4 | S34W71 | 0040 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: S34W67 |
| S7746 | 2022.08.03 | S22W19 | |||||||||
| 13074 | 2022.08.04 2022.08.05 |
1 | 3 | 1 | S16E42 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0180 |
| 13075 | 2022.08.05 2022.08.07 |
3 | 7 | 4 | N21E54 | 0020 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| S7749 | 2022.08.05 | S32W23 | |||||||||
| S7750 | 2022.08.05 | 3 | N16W13 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7751 | 2022.08.05 | S16W56 | |||||||||
| S7752 | 2022.08.06 | 7 | 2 | N24E08 | 0012 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13076 | 2022.08.06 2022.08.07 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N16E69 | 0110 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| S7754 | 2022.08.06 | 2 | S19W18 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7755 | 2022.08.07 | 3 | 1 | N28E58 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7756 | 2022.08.07 | 5 | 3 | S18E20 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S7757 | 2022.08.07 | 2 | 1 | S32W28 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 17 | 48 | 23 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 87 | 178 | 133 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 50 | 89 | 64 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 96 | 98 | 106 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 106.6 (1) | 12.0 (2A) / 53.0 (2B) / 100.7 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (8.5) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
