Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 13, 2022 at 09:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 12, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1093. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 499 and 627 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 119.5 - decreasing 56.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 107.96). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 21222101 (planetary), 21323311 (Boulder), 62223322 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 242) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 152) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13071 [S18W61] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17W23] was mostly quiet and gained a spot in the far eastern part of the trailing spot section.
Region 13075 [N23W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15E04] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:58, C1.1 @ 05:10 UT
Region 13077 [S18W46] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13078 [S23E34] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet. The region has reversed polarities.
New region 13079 [S11W11] emerged on August 11 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region is still developing and could soon become capable of producing a minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 16:32, C1.2 @ 23:21, C1.3 @ 23:34 UT
New region 13080 [N19W38] emerged on August 11 with SWPC numbering the region the following day. Slow decay was observed after noon.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S08E50] was quiet and stable.
S7767 [N18E03] developed further. The region has reversed polarities and could become capable of producing M class flares is it develops further. The spot group is very close to AR 13076 and the 2 regions could merge if there is development in the area between the groups.
S7768 [N12E59] developed significantly late in the day as new flux emerged and could produce C flares.
New region S7772 [S18W39] emerged near noon with a couple of spots, then decayed slowly late in the day.
New region S7773 [N23E14] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.1 10:20   13077 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A boomerang shaped recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) will likely rotate across the central meridian on August 14-17.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on August 13 due to effects from CH1093. Quiet is likely on August 14-16. Quiet to minor storm conditions can be expected for August 17-20 due to effects from CH1094.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13071 2022.08.01
2022.08.03
1 1 1 S18W62 0110 HSX HSX

 

13074 2022.08.04
2022.08.05
1 16 3 S17W25 0130 HSX FSO

area: 0150

location: S17W23

13075 2022.08.05
2022.08.07
  2   N18W16 0004   BXO location: N23W08
S7752 2022.08.06       N24W56          
13076 2022.08.06
2022.08.07
8 9 3 N16E04 0170 DAO CAO SWPC includes AR S7767 in this group
S7755 2022.08.07       N30W20          
13077 2022.08.07
2022.08.09
4 9 3 S18W48 0020 BXO CRO location: S18W46
S7758 2022.08.08       S29W36            
S7761 2022.08.08       N08W52            
13078 2022.08.09
2022.08.10
3 9 5 S25E32 0030 CAO CAO area: 0050

location: S23E34

reversed polarities

S7763 2022.08.09       N30W28            
S7765 2022.08.10       S27W36          
S7766 2022.08.10   3 1 S08E50 0007   AXX  
S7767 2022.08.11   19 11 N18E03 0100   DAI reversed polarities
S7768 2022.08.11   12 9 N12E59 0040   DRI  
13080 2022.08.11
2022.08.12
2 5 3 N21W37 0010 BXO CRO area: 0020

location: N19W38

13079 2022.08.11
2022.08.12
8 24 13 S11W13 0070 DRO DRI area: 0110

location: S11W11

beta-gamma

S7771 2022.08.11       S25E28          
S7772 2022.08.12   1   S18W39 0002   AXX    
S7773 2022.08.12   2   N23E14 0004   BXO    
Total spot count: 27 112 52  
Sunspot number: 97 242 152  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 50 149 89  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 107 133 122  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 109.2 (1)   22.8 (2A) / 58.9 (2B) / 95.0 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (11.5)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.