Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 19, 2022 at 11:45 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on August 18 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1094. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 505 and 702 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to severe storm levels. It is unclear if any of the CMEs observed from August 15 onwards have reached Earth. None of the solar wind parameters recorded at DSCOVR have displayed distinct evidence of CME influence.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 116.5 - increasing 1.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.82). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 30 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 30.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32335555 (planetary), 32434544 (Boulder), 44345676 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 190) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 122) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13078 [S24W44] decayed significantly losing much of its penumbral and most of its umbral area. There is still significant polarity intermixing and further M flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 02:52, C1.9 @ 08:09, C1.7 @ 09:20, C1.1 @ 15:53, C1.4 @ 16:57, C1.5 @ 18:14 UT
Region 13081 [N10W25] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13082 [N27E26] was quiet and stable.
Region 13083 [S26W53] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13084 [S09E18] emerged on August 14 and was numbered by SWPC 4 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10W27] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7786 [S19E47] was quiet and stable.
S7787 [N36W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7790 [N12E18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7792 [N30E53] emerged with a tiny spot.

A C1.0 flare was recorded at 20:48 UT from a source behind the southwest limb.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.7 00:40   13078 GOES16  
C4.5 04:29 S24W30 13078 GOES16  
C2.2 04:39 N09W09 13081 GOES16  
C4.2 05:22 N11W08 13081 GOES16  
C5.7 06:02 S24W34 13078 GOES16  
C3.6 08:52 S24W30 13078 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13082
M1.4/1N 10:09 S23W38 13078 GOES16  
M1.5 10:55   13078 GOES16 faint halo CME, weak type II and IV radio sweeps
C2.7 12:35 N20W76 S7776 GOES16  
C2.4 12:54   13078 GOES16  
M1.3/1F 14:13 S25W37 13078 GOES16  
C4.2 15:53   13078 GOES16  
C3.0 19:37 S24W40 13078 GOES16  
C3.4 20:13   13081 GOES16  
C6.3 21:58   13078 GOES16  
C3.0 22:15   13078 GOES16  
C3.5 22:24   13078 GOES16  
C4.4/1F 22:40 S27W41 13078 GOES16  
C3.9 23:50   13081 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13078

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 15: A partial halo CME was observed after the long duration C3 event in AR 13074 early in the day.
August 16: No well defined CME was observed after the M5 major flare in AR 13078, however, there is chance CME effects will reach Earth on August 18 or 19.
August 17: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M1.0 long duration event in AR 13078 peaking at 14:52 UT. The CME could reach Earth on August 20.
August 18: A faint full halo CME was observed after an M1.5 flare in AR 13078 peaking at 10:55 UT. The CME could reach Earth on August 21.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) rotated across the central meridian on August 14-17. S small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1095) will be Earth facing on August 19.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected for August 19-21 due to effects from CH1094 and the August 17 and 18 CMEs. Major storm intervals are possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on August 22 due to effect from CH1095.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13076 2022.08.06
2022.08.07
      N15W77        

location: N15W73

13078 2022.08.09
2022.08.10
14 32 15 S24W47 0210 DAC DAC beta-gamma

location: S24W44

S7766 2022.08.10   3 1 S11W29 0006   BXO    
13081 2022.08.11
2022.08.13
9 19 7 N11W23 0120 CAO CAO location: N10W25
S7771 2022.08.11       S27W51            
S7775 2022.08.13       N36W48            
S7777 2022.08.14       N26W52            
13084 2022.08.14 3 15 7 S09E18 0020 BXO DRO area: 0040
S7779 2022.08.14       N11W39            
13083 2022.08.15
2022.08.16
3 5 3 S24W56 0010 BXO BXO location: S26W53
13082 2022.08.15
2022.08.16
4 11 6 N27E22 0050 DAO DAO location: N27E22
S7785 2022.08.15       N16W01            
S7786 2022.08.16   2 2 S19E47 0010   HRX  
S7787 2022.08.16   1   N36W13 0002   AXX  
S7788 2022.08.16       S16E47            
S7789 2022.08.16       N13W38          
S7790 2022.08.17   1 1 N12E19 0003   AXX  
S7791 2022.08.18       N22W19          
S7792 2022.08.18   1   N30E53 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 33 90 42  
Sunspot number: 83 190 122  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 48 111 63  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 91 105 98  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.4 (1)   42.0 (2A) / 72.3 (2B) / 93.1 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (12.2)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.