Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 24, 2022 at 06:15 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 23. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 404 and 526 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 100.9 - increasing 2.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 109.16). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.6). Three hour interval K indices: 10010002 (planetary), 11011212 (Boulder), 20012003 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 131) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 64) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13082 [N27W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13085 [N30W09] matured and was quiet.
New region 13086 [S22E42] emerged on August 21 and was numbered by SPWC 2 days later as slow development continued. C1 flare: C1.3 @ 02:11 UT
New region 13087 [S15E66] rotated into view on August 22 and received its NOAA number the following day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7786 [S17W15] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7799 [S11W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7803 [N22E42] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7808 [N17E84] rotated partly into view with a single mature spot.

A C1.0 flare was recorded at 06:04 UT from a location at the northwest limb, probably in AR 13081.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
        GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 21-23: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1095) was Earth facing on August 19.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on August 24-26.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13084 2022.08.14       S07W48         location: S10W48
13082 2022.08.15
2022.08.16
  3   N29W37 0004   BXO location: N27W41
S7786 2022.08.16   2 1 S17W15 0006   BXO    
S7788 2022.08.16       S16W18            
S7790 2022.08.17       N13W46            
S7792 2022.08.18       N30W12            
S7794 2022.08.19       S18W47            
S7796 2022.08.19       N14W36            
13085 2022.08.20
2022.08.21
15 27 14 N25W08 0250 DKI DSI area: 0360

location: N30W09

S7799 2022.08.20   3   S11W41 0004   AXX  
S7800 2022.08.20       N05W36            
S7801 2022.08.20       S23W59            
13086 2022.08.21
2022.08.23
6 11 7 S21E44 0090 CAO DAO location: S22E42
S7803 2022.08.21   1   N22E42 0002   AXX  
S7804 2022.08.21       N28E23            
S7806 2022.08.22       N08E25          
13087 2022.08.22
2022.08.23
1 3 2 S15E65 0040 HAX HAX area: 0090
S7808 2022.08.23   1   N17E84 0020   HRX    
Total spot count: 22 51 24  
Sunspot number: 52 131 64  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 42 69 42  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 57 72 51  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 111.6 (1)   51.1 (2A) / 68.9 (2B) / 87.8 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (11.9)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.