Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 27, 2022 at 07:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on August 26. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 298 and 389 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 118.6 - increasing 27.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 109.42). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11111011 (planetary), 11213301 (Boulder), 00001124 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 201) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 114) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13085 [N30W49] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13086 [S23E01] developed as new flux emerged.
Region 13087 [S14E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13088 [S28W59] developed further and has a few weak magnetic delta structures. A major proton flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 04:53, C1.7 @ 05:52 UT. The region was the source of a long duration M4.8 event peaking at 02:40 UT. A partial halo CME was observed after this event. As was an increase in the above 10 Mev proton flux.
Region 13089 [S22E43] developed further and still has a magnetic delta near its center. Significant polarity intermixing is still present and major flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 00:39, C1.9 @ 01:57, C1.9 @ 10:22 UT
Region 13090 [N17E53] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7803 [N20E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7815 [S22E08] emerged with tiny spots to the east of AR 13086.
New region S7816 [S13E76] rotated into view with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.7 01:26   13088 GOES16  
C2.4 02:35   13088 GOES16 wrongly attributed to AR 13089 by SWPC
C4.3 02:53   13088 GOES16  
C6.0 03:08   13088 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13089
C2.3 04:10   13089 GOES16  
C4.7/1N 05:19 S25W45 13088 GOES16  
C7.3/1N 06:28 S29W58 13088 GOES16 LDE
C3.7 07:11   13088 GOES16  
C3.4 07:51   13088 GOES16  
C5.2 08:40   13088 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13089
C7.0 08:59 S21E55 13089 GOES16  
C6.1 09:08   13088 GOES16  
C3.5 09:35   13089 GOES16  
C2.1 10:39   13088 GOES16 simultaneous flare in AR 13089
M2.1/1N 10:55 S22E52 13089 GOES16  
M7.2 12:14 S22E51 13089 GOES16  
M5.3 12:31   13089 GOES16  
M3.6 13:16   13088 GOES16 LDE, partial halo CME
M1.8 14:33   13088 GOES16  
M1.1 15:22   13088 GOES16  
C8.5 15:59   13088 GOES16  
C7.1 16:31   13088 GOES16  
C4.5 16:55   13088 GOES16  
C4.9 18:18 S27W56 13088 GOES16  
C2.6 18:42   13089 GOES16  
C2.9 18:53   13088 GOES16  
C2.6 19:34   13089 GOES16  
C2.7 21:00   13089 GOES16  
C3.0 22:03   13088 GOES16  
C3.4 22:35   13088 GOES16 wrongly attributed to AR 13089 by SWPC
C2.0 23:14   13088 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 24: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed.
August 25: A partial halo CME was observed after 05 UT in LASCO C3 imagery. The distribution of material indicates a northern hemisphere source, however, with the lack of obvious CMEs on the frontside, the source was likely backsided.
August 26: A partial halo CME was observed after the M3.6 LDE in AR 13088. The event peaked at 13:16 UT and the CME core was headed towards the west southwest. Earth could see an impact on August 28-29.
August 27: A partial halo CME was observed after the M4.8 LDE in AR 13088 early in the day. Earth could see an impact on August 29.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1096) will be rotating across the central meridian on August 25-27.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on August 27 becoming quiet to minor on August 28-30 due to effects from CH1096 and CME effects.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13082 2022.08.15
2022.08.16
      N29W79           location: N27W80
S7786 2022.08.16       S17W54            
S7788 2022.08.16       S16W57            
S7792 2022.08.18       N30W51            
13085 2022.08.20
2022.08.21
4 12 6 N30W49 0140 DSO EAO

 

13086 2022.08.21
2022.08.23
6 20 12 S22E01 0050 DAO DAO location: S23E01

area: 0100

S7803 2022.08.21   2   N20E01 0003   AXX  
S7804 2022.08.21       N28W16            
S7806 2022.08.22       N08W14            
13087 2022.08.22
2022.08.23
1 2 1 S13E26 0030 HRX HRX location: S14E27
13090 2022.08.23
2022.08.25
  2   N16E48 0003   AXX location: N17E53
13088 2022.08.24
2022.08.25
15 34 22 S28W58 0420 DKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

location: S28W59

area: 0520

13089 2022.08.24 12 34 21 S21E44 0190 DAI EKC beta-gamma-delta

location: S22E43

area: 0340

S7811 2022.08.25       N13W00          
S7812 2022.08.25       N35W50          
S7813 2022.08.25       N03W12          
S7814 2022.08.25       N34E07          
S7815 2022.08.26   4 2 S22E08 0010   BXO    
S7816 2022.08.26   1   S13E76 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 38 111 64  
Sunspot number: 88 201 124  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 66 144 97  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 97 111 99  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 111.9 (1)   58.5 (2A) / 69.7 (2B) / 90.2 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (10.9)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.