The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on January 19 due to CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 105.3 - decreasing 20.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 83.07). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 23 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 22.6). Three hour interval K indices: 55433223 (planetary), 44433222 (Boulder), 66433355 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 167) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 91) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12927 [S20W63] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 12929 [N08W72] was quiet until the end of the day when a C1.0
flare was observed.
A major M5.5 flare was recorded at 06:01 UT on January
20. This event was associated with a minor increase in proton levels at
Earth.
Region 12930 [N21W72] was quiet and stable.
Region 12932 [N30E09] was quiet and stable.
Region 12933 [S20W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7295 [S28E11] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7302 [N22E65] was quiet and stable.
New region S7303 [S24E80] rotated into view
with a single mature spot.
New region S7304 [S23E03] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7305 [N21E33] was observed with
tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7306 [N18E09] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7307 [S10E32] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
January 18: A CME was observed off the
northwest limb and part of the southwest limb after an M1.5 event in AR
12929 peaking at 17:44 UT. Due to missing LASCO imagery for a couple of
hours after this event, it is uncertain whether or not there were any Earth
direct components.
January 17 and 19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1055) will rotate into an Earth facing position on January 20. Another northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1056) could become Earth facing on January 21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 20-22 and become quiet to active on January 23-25 due to effects from CH1055 and CH1056.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12927 | 2022.01.08 2022.01.09 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S20W66 | 0030 | HSX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: S20W63 area: 0015 |
| 12930 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
4 | 7 | 5 | N21W72 | 0230 | DAO | DSO |
 |
 |
|
| 12929 | 2022.01.11 2022.01.13 |
2 | 6 | 3 | N07W71 | 0210 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
reversed polarities |
| 12933 | 2022.01.13 2022.01.16 |
10 | 12 | 8 | S22W35 | 0100 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: S20W34 |
| 12932 | 2022.01.14 2022.01.15 |
7 | 2 | N32E07 | 0012 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N30E09 | ||
| S7294 | 2022.01.14 | S28W11 | |||||||||
| S7295 | 2022.01.14 | 3 | S28E11 |
 |
|||||||
| S7297 | 2022.01.14 | N32W40 | |||||||||
| S7298 | 2022.01.14 | S18W48 | |||||||||
| S7299 | 2022.01.15 | N02W28 | SC24 group | ||||||||
| S7300 | 2022.01.16 | N18W22 | |||||||||
| S7301 | 2022.01.18 | S14E03 |
 |
||||||||
| S7302 | 2022.01.18 | 1 | N22E65 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7303 | 2022.01.19 | 1 | 1 | S24E80 | 0180 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S7304 | 2022.01.19 | 5 | S23E03 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S7305 | 2022.01.19 | 2 | 1 | N21E33 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7306 | 2022.01.19 | 1 | N18E09 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7307 | 2022.01.19 | 1 | S10E32 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 17 | 47 | 21 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 57 | 167 | 91 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 37 | 70 | 44 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 63 | 92 | 73 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.9 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (31.8 projected, +4.0) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (36.5 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (42.2 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.6 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.1 | (51.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 101.6 (1) | 34.9 (2A) / 56.9 (2B) / 78.7 (2C) | (60.6 projected, +3.6) | (9.2) | |
| 2022.02 | (65.4 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2022.03 | (70.8 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
