Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 23, 2022 at 10:45 UT

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (January 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (January 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (January 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (January 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (January 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 22 under the influence of weak CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 95.2 - decreasing 30.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 83.22). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33212223 (planetary), 23121212 (Boulder), 44222356 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 88) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 49) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12933 [S19W75] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12934 [S24E42] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7305 [N22W02] was quiet and stable.
S7308 [S18E51] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7309 [S20E21] was quiet and stable.
New region S7312 [N17E50] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 20-21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 22: A fairly large filament eruption in the northeast quadrant was observed beginning in SDO/AIA imagery at 06:28 UT. Early on a CME was easily observable off the northeast limb, however, within hours a faint full halo CME was observed in LASCO images.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small, recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1055) was in an Earth facing position on January 20. Another northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1056) rotated across the central meridian on January 21-22. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1057) will likely become Earth facing on January 24.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on January 23-25 due to effects from CH1055 and CH1056. The CME that was observed on January 22 could reach Earth late on January 25 or on January 26 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12933 2022.01.13
2022.01.16
1 1 1 S19W77 0040 HSX HAX location: S19W75
12932 2022.01.14
2022.01.15
      N32W35         location: N32W25
S7294 2022.01.14       S28W47          
S7295 2022.01.14       S28W41            
S7301 2022.01.18       S14W36            
S7302 2022.01.18       N22E26            
12934 2022.01.19
2022.01.20
1 4 2 S25E41 0140 HSX HSX location: S24E42
S7304 2022.01.19       S20W35            
S7305 2022.01.19   6 2 N22W02 0015   BXO  
S7306 2022.01.19       N18W30            
S7307 2022.01.19       S10W07            
S7308 2022.01.20   3   S18E51 0003   BXO  
S7309 2022.01.21   13 4 S20E21 0025   BXO  
S7310 2022.01.21       N23E36          
S7311 2022.01.21       S12E06          
S7312 2022.01.22   1   N17E50 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 2 28 9  
Sunspot number: 22 88 49  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 12 38 19  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 24 48 39  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.9 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.9 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 27.8 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (31.8 projected, +4.0) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (36.5 projected, +4.7) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (42.2 projected, +5.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.6 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.1 (51.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 101.0 (1)   38.3 (2A) / 54.0 (2B) / 69.4 (2C) (60.6 projected, +3.6) (9.0)
2022.02       (65.4 projected, +4.8)  
2022.03       (70.8 projected, +5.4)  
2022.04       (75.9 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.3 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (88.2 projected, +5.9)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.