Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 18, 2022 at 10:20 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 17. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 358 and 450 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 161.2 - increasing 24.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 105.64). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 10111021 (planetary), 10212222 (Boulder), 11111122 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 247) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 169) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13053 [N18W85] rotated partly out of view while decaying quickly.
Region 13055 [S16W75] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 13:44 UT
Region 13056 [S16W28] decayed further losing spots in the eastern spot section. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 10:48, C1.6 @ 14:56, C1.6 @ 16:32 UT
Region 13057 [N16W10] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 12:02 UT
Region 13058 [N14E26] decayed slowly and still has a magnetic delta at the center of the region. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 09:02, C1.9 @ 09:51 UT
Region 13059 [S08E41] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13060 [N11E35] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13061 [N23W38] emerged on July 16 and was numbered the next day by SWPC as the region developed slowly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7701 [N20W29] reemerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.1 03:52   13053 GOES16 LDE
C6.5 12:27 N15E34 13058 GOES16  
C2.1 16:16 S15W26 13056 GOES16  
|C3.6/1F 17:26 S17W69 13055 GOES16  
C2.0 18:23     GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 16-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 15: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the northern hemisphere after noon. The CME could reach Earth on July 19.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1088) rotated across the central meridian on July 15. A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) will become Earth facing on July 18-20.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on July 18 with a chance of unsettled intervals should the disturbance related to CH1088 reach Earth. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on July 19-20 due to CME effects and on July 21-23 due to effects from CH1089.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnigh4t Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13053 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
3 2 1 N17W90 0060 CAO AXX

area: 0005

location: N18W85

13055 2022.07.06
2022.07.07
10 12 7 S17W71 0490 EHI EKO

location: S16W75

S7691 2022.07.08       N18W56            
13056 2022.07.09
2022.07.10
33 54 36 S17W29 0140 DAI DRI

 

location: S16W28

13057 2022.07.10
2022.07.11
19 32 14 N15W09 0360 EKI EHI

location: N16W10

S7698 2022.07.11       S15W48            
S7699 2022.07.11       N22W54          
13058 2022.07.13
2022.07.14
9 24 13 N16E26 0310 DKI DAC beta-gamma-delta

location: N14E26

area: 0130

S7701 2022.07.13   2   N20W29 0003   AXX    
13059 2022.07.14
2022.07.15
5 9 7 S10E41 0200 DSO DSO location: S08E41
13060 2022.07.14
2022.07.16
3 5 3 N10E33 0060 HAX CAO location: N11E35
S7704 2022.07.15       N33W15            
S7705 2022.07.15       N18E34            
S7706 2022.07.15       S06E05            
S7707 2022.07.16       S16E16          
13061 2022.07.16
2022.07.17
4 17 8 N24W40 0040 CSO CRI location: N23W38
Total spot count: 86 157 89  
Sunspot number: 166 247 169  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 141 198 130  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 183 136 135  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 137.5 (1)   55.6 (2A) / 101.4 (2B) / 108.4 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (9.0)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.