The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 18. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 343 and 519 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A weak disturbance was observed beginning at DSCOVR after 10h UT, maybe the arrival of effects from CH1088. Then at 20:36 UT the total field of the IMF suddenly increased from 8 to 13 nT. This coincided with a sudden increase in solar wind density and a fairly quick increase in solar wind speed. The CME observed on July 15 may have been the source of the latter disturbance.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 149.4 - increasing 10.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 105.83). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 11232123 (planetary), 11233223 (Boulder), 11234255 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 261) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 133) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13055 [S18W82] rotated partly out of view as it decayed
further.
Region 13056 [S16W42] decayed slowly and was
mostly quiet. C1. flares: C1.2 @ 20:27 UT
Region 13057 [N17W23] decayed slowly. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 14:00 UT
Region 13058 [N13E12] decayed slowly and lost the magnetic delta.
Region 13059 [S08E27] was quiet and stable.
Region 13060 [N11E21] was quiet and stable.
Region 13061 [N24W50] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7707 [S15E01] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region
S7709 [N10E38] emerged with several spots.
New region S7711 [N25E16] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7712 [N29E48] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 16:14 | N19W19 | 13057 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 21:20 | 13056 | GOES16 | LDE, involved filament eruption, partial halo CME | |
| C3.9 | 23:54 | 13058 | GOES16 |
July 16-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 18: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in
the southern hemisphere after 20h UT. The filament eruption triggered
activity in AR 13056 and a partial halo CME was observed late in the day.
While the bulk of the CME is not headed towards Earth, there is a chance of
weak effects on July 22.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1088) rotated across the central meridian on July 15. A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) will become Earth facing on July 18-20.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are likely on July 19 due to CME effects becoming quiet to active on July 20. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on July 21-23 due to effects from CH1089 and possibly from the July 18 CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnigh4t | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13055 | 2022.07.06 2022.07.07 |
3 | 3 | S17W84 | 0100 | CAO | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0010 rotated partly out of view |
|
| 13056 | 2022.07.09 2022.07.10 |
17 | 40 | 16 | S16W42 | 0090 | DRI | DRI |
 |
 |
|
| 13057 | 2022.07.10 2022.07.11 |
15 | 41 | 15 | N17W21 | 0240 | EKI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N17W23 |
| 13058 | 2022.07.13 2022.07.14 |
9 | 17 | 10 | N14E16 | 0080 | DRI | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N13E12 |
| S7701 | 2022.07.13 | N20W42 |
 |
||||||||
| 13059 | 2022.07.14 2022.07.15 |
7 | 18 | 11 | S10E29 | 0120 | CSI | DSO |
 |
 |
location: S08E27 |
| 13060 | 2022.07.14 2022.07.16 |
1 | 11 | 3 | N13E22 | 0040 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N11E21 |
| S7704 | 2022.07.15 | N33W28 | |||||||||
| S7705 | 2022.07.15 | N18E21 | |||||||||
| S7706 | 2022.07.15 | S06W08 | |||||||||
| S7707 | 2022.07.16 | 1 | S15E01 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| 13061 | 2022.07.16 2022.07.17 |
3 | 10 | 4 | N23W53 | 0070 | CRO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N24W50 |
| S7709 | 2022.07.18 | 7 | 4 | N10E38 | 0015 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S7710 | 2022.07.18 | S15E69 |
 |
||||||||
| S7711 | 2022.07.18 | 1 | N25E16 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7712 | 2022.07.18 | 2 | N29E48 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 55 | 151 | 63 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 125 | 261 | 133 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 89 | 182 | 94 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 138 | 144 | 106 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.7 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (59.5 projected, +3.8) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (65.1 projected, +5.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (70.5 projected, +5.4) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.7 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.2 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.6 | (88.1 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 138.2 (1) | 59.6 (2A) / 102.7 (2B) / 106.8 (2C) | (95.3 projected, +7.2) | (9.0) | |
| 2022.08 | (101.9 projected, +6.6) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (141.4 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
