The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on July 19 due to CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 407 and 541 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 144.1 - increasing 15.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 106.01). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 26 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.6). Three hour interval K indices: 24445444 (planetary), 34434323 (Boulder), 33445565 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 255) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 185) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13056 [S14W58] decayed further and
produced several low level C flares. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 07:35, C1.3 @ 08:12,
C1.5 @ 09:37, C1.3 @ 11:12, C1.5 @ 13:30, C1.4 @ 16:16, C1.3 @ 21:20, C1.3 @
22:17, C1.8 @ 22:54 UT
Region 13057 [N17W38] decayed slowly as many tiny spots disappeared.
C1 flares: C1.6 @ 17:23 UT
Region 13058 [N14E00] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Small
opposite polarity umbrae are narrowly separated in the trailing spot
section. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 01:09, C1.4 @ 12:34 UT
Region 13059 [S08E12] was quiet and mostly stable. C1 flares: C1.3 @
19:39 UT
Region 13060 [N11E08] gained spots and was quiet.
Region 13061 [N24W62] lost the leader spots and was mostly quiet.
New region 13062 [S25E76] rotated into view with a mature spot.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7709 [N10E25] developed further and has many
small spots.
New region S7713 [N18E09] emerged with a few spots.
New region S7716 [N08E45] emerged with several spots.
New region S7717 [N20W13] emerged with tiny spots.
A C1.6 flare was recorded at 02:16 UT from a location behind the southwest limb, as was a C1.3 flare at 08:54 UT.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.2 | 02:52 | 13057 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.3 | 04:29 | 13058 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13061 by SWPC |
July 17, 19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 18: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in
the southern hemisphere after 20h UT. The filament eruption triggered
activity in AR 13056 and a partial halo CME was observed late in the day.
While the bulk of the CME is not headed towards Earth, there is a chance of
weak effects on July 22.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) was Earth facing on July 18-20.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on July 20 due to CME effects. Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on July 21-23 due to effects from CH1089 and possibly from the July 18 CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnigh4t | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13056 | 2022.07.09 2022.07.10 |
11 | 22 | 11 | S16W57 | 0080 | DRI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S14W58 |
| 13057 | 2022.07.10 2022.07.11 |
11 | 23 | 12 | N15W37 | 0190 | ESO | EKO |
 |
 |
location: N17W38 area: 0280 |
| 13058 | 2022.07.13 2022.07.14 |
7 | 16 | 10 | N13W00 | 0070 | DRO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: N14E00 |
| S7701 | 2022.07.13 | N20W55 | |||||||||
| 13059 | 2022.07.14 2022.07.15 |
6 | 17 | 9 | S07E15 | 0130 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S08E12 area: 0180 |
| 13060 | 2022.07.14 2022.07.16 |
6 | 13 | 8 | N14E07 | 0030 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N11E08 |
| S7704 | 2022.07.15 | N33W41 | |||||||||
| S7705 | 2022.07.15 | N18E08 | |||||||||
| S7706 | 2022.07.15 | S06W21 | |||||||||
| S7707 | 2022.07.16 | S15W12 |
 |
||||||||
| 13061 | 2022.07.16 2022.07.17 |
2 | 5 | 4 | N22W65 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N24W62 area: 0020 |
| S7709 | 2022.07.18 | 20 | 9 | N10E25 | 0070 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S7710 | 2022.07.18 | S15E56 | |||||||||
| S7711 | 2022.07.18 | N25E03 |
 |
||||||||
| S7712 | 2022.07.18 | N29E35 |
 |
||||||||
| S7713 | 2022.07.19 | 8 | 3 | N18E09 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 13062 | 2022.07.19 2022.07.19 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S23E72 | 0060 | HSX | HSX |
 |
was AR S7714 location: S25E75 area: 0090 |
|
| S7716 | 2022.07.19 | 14 | 7 | N08E45 | 0070 | DRI |
 |
||||
| S7717 | 2022.07.19 | 6 | 1 | N20W13 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 44 | 145 | 75 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 114 | 255 | 185 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 70 | 185 | 115 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 125 | 140 | 148 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.7 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (59.5 projected, +3.8) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (65.1 projected, +5.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (70.5 projected, +5.4) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.7 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.2 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.6 | (88.1 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 138.5 (1) | 63.3 (2A) / 103.3 (2B) / 107.1 (2C) | (95.3 projected, +7.2) | (9.8) | |
| 2022.08 | (101.9 projected, +6.6) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (141.4 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
