Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 17, 2022 at 12:25 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (June 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (June 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (June 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (June 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (June 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 16 under the influence of effects from a high speed stream from CH1081. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 146.7 - decreasing 26.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 101.41). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.9). Three hour interval K indices: 12223224 (planetary), 34342333 (Boulder), 33334336 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 383) and in 13 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 239) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13030 [N18W18] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:21 UT.
Region 13031 [S27W30] decayed slowly and still has a magnetic delta in a trailing spot section penumbra. Further M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @02:08, C1.7 @ 15:40, C1.6 @ 19:43, C1.2 @ 20:25, C1.4 @ 22:27 UT.
Region 13032 [N20W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13033 [N17E15] was quiet and stable.
Region 13034 [N01E27] was quiet and stable. This is likely an SC24 group.
Region 13035 [S18E28] gained spots and lost mature penumbra.
Region 13036 [S12W80] was mostly quiet and rotated partly out of view. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 03:40 UT
Region 13037 [S21W39] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 13038 [N16E48] emerged on June 15 and developed further on June 16 when it was numbered by SWPC. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 12:40 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7628 [S18W29] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18W42] was quiet and stable.
S7642 [N13E57] was quiet and stable.
S7646 [N28E71]was quiet and stable.
New region S7647 [S13E07] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
M1.6 03:53 S30W16 13031 GOES16  
C4.5 13:44 S28W18 13031 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 15-17: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1081) was Earth facing on June 11-13. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1082) rotated across the central meridian on June 15.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on June 17-19 under the influence of effects from CH1081 and CH1082.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13037 2022.06.08
2022.06.15
8 21 9 S21W41 0040 DSO DAO area: 0070

location: S21W39

13030 2022.06.09
2022.06.10
13 52 27 N19W17 0120 DAI DAI

location: N18W18

13032 2022.06.09
2022.06.12
3 25 6 N21W07 0080 HSX CSO area: 0110

location: N20W08

S7628 2022.06.10   7 1 S18W29 0010   BXO  
S7629 2022.06.10   4 1 N18W32 0007   AXX  
13031 2022.06.10
2022.06.11
20 34 17 S25W30 0180 ESI EAI beta-gamma-delta

location: S27W30

13033 2022.06.11
2022.06.12
8 37 16 N17E15 0050 DAO DRI  
13034 2022.06.12
2022.06.13
1 9 2 N01E27 0090 HSX CSO area: 0160

likely SC24 group

13035 2022.06.12
2022.06.13
9 30 15 S18E29 0100 CAO CRI location: S18E28
13036 2022.06.12
2022.06.14
4 5 2 S12W80 0060 DSO CAO  
S7637 2022.06.12       N17W51            
S7640 2022.06.13       N22E04            
S7641 2022.06.13       S19W07            
S7642 2022.06.14   1 1 N13E57 0008   HRX  
S7643 2022.06.14       N12W24            
S7644 2022.06.14       N07W33            
13038 2022.06.15
2022.06.16
3 16 11 N12E54 0010 CRO DRI location: N16E48

area: 0050

S7646 2022.06.15   1 1 N28E70 0004   AXX  
S7647 2022.06.16   1   S13E07 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 69 243 109  
Sunspot number: 159 383 239  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 112 285 151  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 175 211 191  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 (55.7 projected, +5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.4 projected, +4.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (66.9 projected, +6.5) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (72.4 projected, +5.5) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (77.6 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (84.1 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 113.4 (1)   35.0 (2A) / 65.6 (2B) / 99.7 (2C) (89.9 projected, +5.8) (7.5)
2022.07       (97.2 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (103.8 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (108.8 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (112.0 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (114.8 projected, +2.8)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.