Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 29, 2022 at 09:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (June 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (June 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (June 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (June 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (June 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 491 and 571 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 96.1 - decreasing 8.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 102.84). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.4). Three hour interval K indices: 12221123 (planetary), 35331123 (Boulder), 33322136 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 136) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 78) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13040 [S13W23] was mostly quiet and stable. A small area of polarity intermixing was observed to the north of the main spot.
Region 13041 [N15W82] decayed rapidly and had nearly lost all spots when it rotated to the northwest limb late in the day.
New region 13042 [N09W20] emerged on June 27 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 13043 [S13E24] emerged on June 27 with SWPC numbering the region the following day.
New region 13044 [S19E14] emerged on June 27 and decayed on June 28 when it was numbered by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7660 [N17W34] was quiet and stable.
New region S7661 [S11E55] emerged early in the day with tiny spots.
New region S7662 [S22W07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7663 [S31W03] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

A filament eruption in the northeast quadrant covering about 20 degrees from near the central meridian was observed beginning near 22:07 UT. No obvious CME was observed afterwards.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 26-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1086) could rotate into an Earth facing position on July 1.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on June 29 - July 1. There is a slight chance effects from a CME observed on June 26 could reach Earth on June 29 and cause some unsettled and active intervals.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S7651 2022.06.20       N27W45          
S7653 2022.06.20       S23W41          
13040 2022.06.20
2022.06.21
8 14 7 S12W25 0120 CAO CAO location: S13W23
13041 2022.06.27 3 3 1 N15W83 0020 CSO BXO area: 0008
13042 2022.06.27
2022.06.28
4 8 6 N09W22 0020 CRO DRO area: 0040

location: N09W20

S7656 2022.06.27       N15E15          
S7657 2022.06.27       S24W30          
13044 2022.06.27
2022.06.28
2 6 2 S19E12 0010 BXO BXO  
13043 2022.06.27
2022.06.28
4 2 1 S13E21 0010 BXO CRO location: S13E24
S7660 2022.06.27   3   N17W34 0004   BXO  
S7661 2022.06.28   4 1 S11E55 0006   CRO    
S7662 2022.06.28   1   S22W07 0002   AXX    
S7663 2022.06.28   5   S31W03 0005   BXO  

 

Total spot count: 21 46 18  
Sunspot number: 71 136 78  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 34 60 42  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 78 68 62  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 (55.7 projected, +5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.4 projected, +4.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (66.9 projected, +6.5) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (72.4 projected, +5.5) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (77.6 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (84.1 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 117.6 (1)   68.6 (2A) / 73.5 (2B) / 94.9 (2C) (89.9 projected, +5.8) (9.0)
2022.07       (97.2 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (103.8 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (108.8 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (112.0 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (114.8 projected, +2.8)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.