Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 5, 2022 at 15:15 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 4 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1111. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 489 and 713 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 117.7 - decreasing 42.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 118.02). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.0). Three hour interval K indices: 44333323 (planetary), 43344221 (Boulder), 44433344 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 238) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 154) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13131 [N23W75] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 08:53 UT
Region 13135 [N26W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13136 [S07W06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13137 [N38E28] gained a tiny trailing spot.
Region 13139 [N29E37] was quiet and stable.
New region 13140 [N26E67] rotated into view on November 3 and was numbered the following day by SWPC.
New region 13141 [N13E79] rotated partly into view on November 3 and received its NOAA number the next day. The region has mature spots and may have M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 06:41, C1.5 @ 18:52, C1.6 @ 22:27 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7960 [S13W69] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7967 [S30W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7973 [N27W00] was quiet and stable. C1 flare: C1.0 @ 15:38 UT.
S7977 [N26E48] developed slowly and quietly.
S7978 [N37E21] developed slowly and quietly.
S7979 [N28W42] was quiet and stable.
New region S7983 [S07E08] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7984 [N08E10] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7985 [N17E10] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C5.6 07:44   13141 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 2-4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1111) was Earth facing on November 1-2. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1112) will likely rotate across the central meridian on November 6-7.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are likely on November 5 due to effects from CH1111 becoming quiet to unsettled on November 6-7.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13131 2022.10.23
2022.10.24
1 1 1 N23W76 0100 HSX HSX  
13134 2022.10.24
2022.10.28
      N12W86           location: N11W79
13133 2022.10.24
2022.10.25
      N23W62          

location: N24W56

13135 2022.10.27
2022.10.28
2 8 4 N26W26 0090 CSO CSO  
S7959 2022.10.27       N27W57            
S7960 2022.10.28   1   S13W69 0001   AXX    
S7963 2022.10.29       S03W09            
13136 2022.10.30
2022.10.31
1 9 4 S07W05 0010 AXX CRO  
S7967 2022.10.30   3   S30W19 0003   AXX  
13137 2022.10.30
2022.11.01
3 4 1 N38E21 0030 CRO CRO location: N38E28

apparently SWPC consider AR S7978 to be part of this region

S7969 2022.10.31       S14W37            
13138 2022.10.31
2022.11.01
      S39W31            
S7971 2022.11.01       S26E10          
S7972 2022.11.01       N21E12            
S7973 2022.11.01   16 4 N27W00 0030   BXO  
13139 2022.11.01
2022.11.03
2 6 3 N28E35 0010 BXO CRO  
13140 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
1 1 1 N26E66 0120 HSX HSX area: 0170
S7977 2022.11.03   8 4 N26E48 0030   DRI  
S7978 2022.11.03   9 4 N37E21 0025   CRO  
S7979 2022.11.03   3 3 N28W42 0005   BXO  
13141 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
1 5 4 N15E75 0150 HSX EKO location: N13E79

area: 0710

S7981 2022.11.03       S16E16          
S7982 2022.11.04       N19E31          
S7983 2022.11.04   1 1 S07E08 0005   AXX    
S7984 2022.11.04   1   N08E10 0002   AXX    
S7985 2022.11.04   2   N17E10 0003   BXO    
Total spot count: 11 78 34  
Sunspot number: 81 238 154  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 34 118 74  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 89 131 123  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.4
2022.11 125.2 (1)   8.6 (2A) / 64.5 (2B) / 99.1 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (15.2)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.