Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 15, 2022 at 09:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 387 and 505 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 141.5 - increasing 27.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 119.36). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 00121110 (planetary), 00222220 (Boulder), 00111120 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 166) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 95) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13140 [N23W62] more than doubled its area becoming one of the largest spot groups during SC25. A major flare is possible as the region is becoming magnetically more complex. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 10:26, C1.9 @ 11:31, C1.9 @ 13:10 UT
Region 13141 [N13W56] decayed further losing area and spots. The region was mostly inactive.
Region 13145 [N25W46] was mostly quiet and stable. Opposite polarity spots, although small, are fairly close in the northernmost spot section. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 09:30 UT
Region 13146 [N32E17] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8001 [S27E00] was quiet and stable.
S8004 [S13W07] was quiet and stable.
New region S8006 [S09E28] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C4.1 00:44 N23W53 13140 GOES16  
C3.4 01:19   13140 GOES16  
C2.8 02:08   13140 GOES16  
C3.3 02:49 N25W36 13145 GOES16  
C3.6 03:54 N23W53 13140 GOES16  
C2.5 06:40   13140 GOES16  
C3.8 07:17 N23W56 13140 GOES16  
C2.4 08:47   13140 GOES16  
C7.4 13:40   13140 GOES16  
C5.1 17:29   13140 GOES16  
C4.5 18:28 N25W58 13140 GOES16  
C5.1 19:29| N21W59 13140 GOES16  
C2.3 20:43   13140 GOES16  
C2.5 21:16   13140 GOES16  
C2.6 21:24   13140 GOES16  
C4.3 21:54   13140 GOES16  
C2.9 22:53   13140 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will likely be Earth facing on November 16-18, however, the CH is likely too far to the south to cause a geomagnetic disturbance.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Mostrly quiet conditions are expected on November 15-17.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13140 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
14 28 17 N25W62 0550 EKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 1180

location: N23W62

13142 2022.11.03
2022.11.06
      N25W88          

location: N24W60

13141 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
13 24 10 N15W55 0300 EHC EHI

location: N13W56

area: 0380

S7988 2022.11.05       N16W38            
13143 2022.11.06
2022.11.07
      S13W43           location: S15W35
S7994 2022.11.09       S17W54            
13145 2022.11.10 4 18 8 N25W47 0010 BXO CRO area: 0035

location: N25W46

S7996 2022.11.10       S31W10            
S7998 2022.11.11       N01W23            
13146 2022.11.12
2022.11.13
6 17 9 N32E17 0030 CRO DRI area: 0040
S8000 2022.11.12       N25W10          
S8001 2022.11.12   3   S27E00 0004   AXX  
S8002 2022.11.13       N18W28          
S8003 2022.11.13       N30W01          
S8004 2022.11.13   1 1 S13W07 0003   AXX  
S8005 2022.11.13       N09W06          
S8006 2022.11.14   5   S09E28 0007   BXO    
Total spot count: 37 96 45  
Sunspot number: 77 166 95  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 60 122 71  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 85 91 76  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 132.9 (1)   33.9 (2A) / 72.6 (2B) / 90.3 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (9.4)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.