Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 24, 2022 at 04:45 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 23. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 298 and 349 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 113.3 - decreasing 16.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 120.35). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00001110 (planetary), 00002210 (Boulder), 00000032 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 151) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 78) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13147 [S11W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13148 [S32W30] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.4 @ 18:53 UT
Region 13149 [N23W17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13151 [S14W08] decayed slowly and was less active than during the previous day. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 01:14, C1.0 @ 02:20, C1.1 @ 20:53 UT.
New region 13152 [N28E63] rotated into view on November 22 and developed slowly on November 23 when it was numbered by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8015 [S25W27] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S8028 [N06W40] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8029 [N35E07] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 21 and 23: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 22: A CME associated with the C7 flare in AR 13151 could reach Earth on November 25-26 and cause unsettled and active intervals.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1114) rotated across the central meridian on November 20-21. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1115) was Earth facing on November 23-24, while a recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1116) is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on November 25-26.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on November 24-25 as a high speed stream from CH1114 becomes geoeffective. Unsettled and active intervals are possible on November 25-26 should the November 22 CME reach Earth. A high speed stream from CH1115 could cause quiet to unsettled conditions on November 26-27.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13148 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
  3   S33W33 0004   BXO location: S32W30
13147 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
7 11 7 S12W24 0250 HKX CSO location: S11W22

area: 0190

13149 2022.11.16
2022.11.17
11 27 16 N21W18 0150 EAO DAO location: N23W17
S8012 2022.11.17       S22W41            
S8014 2022.11.17       S07W34          
S8015 2022.11.17   4   S25W27 0006   BXO    
S8018 2022.11.18       S25W57            
S8020 2022.11.19       N20W43            
S8021 2022.11.19       N32W24            
S8024 2022.11.20       N17W26          
13151 2022.11.21
2022.11.21
7 19 12 S16W09 0030 DRO DAI

area: 0080

location: S14W08

13152 2022.11.22
2022.11.23
3 5 3 S26E57 0010 AXX CRO location: N28E63

area: 0030

S8027 2022.11.22       S11E04          
S8028 2022.11.23   1   N06W40 0002   AXX    
S8029 2022.11.23   1   N35E07 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 28 71 38  
Sunspot number: 68 151 78  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 46 89 56  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 75 83 62  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 127.9 (1)   54.4 (2A) / 71.0 (2B) / 94.5 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (7.2)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.