The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 12 under the influence of weak coronal hole effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 381 and 458 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 211.6 - increasing 48.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 126.84). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.3). Three hour interval K indices: 32222223 (planetary), 31212222 (Boulder), 42211335 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 435) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 246) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13181 [S15W75] decayed slowly and became
less active.
Region 13182 [S18W21] saw some development to the northeast of the
main penumbra and 2 small magnetic delta configurations formed. The region
is likely to produce M class flares.
Region 13184 [S13E27] decayed and lost the magnetic delta.
Region 13185 [N19W41] developed further and matured.
Region 13186 [N23E37] developed significantly and has polarity
intermixing. A major flare is possible.
Region 13187 [N15W07] was quiet and stable.
New region 13188 [S23E61] rotated into view on
January 10 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8155 [S22W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8169 [N20W15] decayed slowly early in the day, then developed
slowly.
New region S8170 [N20E63] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8171 [N11E80] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S8172 [N19E84] rotated into view with a mature spot. Early
on January 13 more spots are becoming visible. M class flaring is possible.
New region S8173 [S14E83] rotated into view
with large spots. A major flare is possible.
New region S8174 [N20W23] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8175 [S23E74] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.1 | 00:42 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.8 | 01:52 | 13181 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 03:42 | S17W59 | 13181 | GOES16 | |
| M1.1 | 06:18 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 06:46 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 07:53 | 13184 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs S8171 and 13186 | |
| C5.9 | 08:10 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.4 | 10:06 | N27E52 | 13186 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs 13181 and 13184 |
| M1.2 | 11:28 | S14W69 | 13181 | GOES16 | |
| C4.8 | 12:57 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 13:51 | S14W71 | 13181 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0/1N | 14:57 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 15:20 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1/1F | 15:55 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.4 | 16:34 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 17:39 | S8173 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7/2N | 19:00 | N27E42 | 13186 | GOES16 | |
| M1.0 | 19:13 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 20:32 | 13186 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S8173 | |
| C8.5 | 21:03 | 13186 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.9 | 21:29 | S8173 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 22:24 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.5 | 23:51 | behind SW limb | GOES16 | LDE, large CME |
January 10, 12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 11: AR 13184 was the source a C8 flare at 21:00 UT. A partial
halo CME was observed after this event with the main ejecta off the
southeast limb. Effects from this CME could reach Earth on January 14 or 15.
Another partial halo CME was observed after an M3 flare in AR 13186 at 08:33
UT. There's minor chance that this CME could reach Earth on January 14.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on January 13. Should one or both of the CMEs observed on January 11 reach Earth, unsettled to major storm conditions will be possible on January 14-15.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13181 | 2022.12.31 2023.01.01 |
15 | 9 | 6 | S19W74 | 0240 | EAI | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0100 location: S15W75 SWPC considers this, ARs S8155 and S8167 as one region |
| 13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
35 | 113 | 43 | S18W20 | 0510 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S18W21 |
| S8155 | 2023.01.05 | 24 | 12 | S22W68 | 0210 | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma | ||
| S8157 | 2023.01.05 | S02W51 | |||||||||
| 13185 | 2023.01.06 2023.01.09 |
9 | 24 | 10 | N20W41 | 0100 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0150 location: N19W41 |
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
10 | 44 | 25 | S13E26 | 0240 | CSO | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0470 location: S13E28 |
| S8161 | 2023.01.08 | S17W41 | |||||||||
| S8162 | 2023.01.08 | S31W35 | |||||||||
| 13187 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
2 | N16W11 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N15W07 | |||
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
19 | 43 | 27 | N24E38 | 0320 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N23E37 area: 0640 |
| S8165 | 2023.01.09 | S07W26 | |||||||||
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
3 | 5 | 3 | S23E58 | 0020 | DRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: S23E61 area: 0050 |
| S8169 | 2023.01.11 | 12 | 6 | N20W15 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8170 | 2023.01.12 | 2 | 1 | N20E63 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8171 | 2023.01.12 | 2 | N11E80 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S8172 | 2023.01.12 | 1 | N19E84 | 0130 | HSX |
 |
|||||
| S8173 | 2023.01.12 | 2 | 2 | S14E83 | 0840 | HKX |
 |
||||
| S8174 | 2023.01.12 | 1 | 1 | N20W23 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8175 | 2023.01.12 | 1 | S23E74 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 91 | 285 | 136 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 151 | 435 | 246 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 129 | 343 | 189 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 165 | 240 | 197 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 173.2 (1) | 47.3 (2A) / 122.1 (2B) / 139.6 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (7.9) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
