The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 376 and 460 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 181.9 - decreasing 32.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 136.56). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.4). Three hour interval K indices: 12221133 (planetary), 12222332 (Boulder), 12321355 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 330) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 236) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13238 [N08W55] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13239 [N33W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 13240 [S22W25] decayed
slowly and quietly.
Region 13241 [N28W19] was quiet and stable.
Region 13242 [N10W17] lost the magnetic delta. Minor polarity
intermixing still exists and another M class flare is possible.
Region 13244 [S22W82] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.9 @ 01:15, C1.8 @ 02:47, C1.5 @ 05:46 UT
Region 13245 [S22E10] gained spots and area. M class flaring is
likely. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 02:08, C1.4 @ 06:59, C1.7 @ 08:58 UT
Region 13246 [N24E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13247 [S22E43] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. The easternmost
spots may be another group. C1 flare: C1.7 @ 23:26 UT
Region 13248 [N15W73] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @
05:25 UT
Region 13249 [S12E63] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8341 [S04W22] was quiet and stable.
New region S8347 [N12W56] emerged before noon to the north of AR
13238.
New region S8348 [N22E70] rotated into view with small spots. C1
flares: C1.7 @ 12:25 UT
New region S8349 [S13E82] rotated into view with a mature spot.
New region S8350 [N13E23] emerged with tiny spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.1 | 09:09 | 13245 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1 | 10:12 | 13242 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C3.3 | 13:41 | 13242 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 16:35 | S8348 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 19:44 | 13242 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13245 by SWPC | |
| M1.3/1N | 22:44 | S24E14 | 13245 | GOES16 |
March 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
March 6: A faint full halo CME was observed after the major M5.8
flare in AR 13243 early in the day. While the main ejecta will not reach
Earth, there is a chance of weak effects reaching Earth before noon on March
9.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal hole are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on March 9-11 with a chance of active intervals should a component of the February 6 CME reach Earth.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13244 | 2023.02.25 2023.03.03 |
3 | 2 | 2 | S22W88 | 0030 | CRO | HRX |
 |
 |
location: S22W82 |
| 13238 | 2023.02.26 2023.02.27 |
1 | 2 | 2 | N09W58 | 0030 | CRO | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N08W55 SWPC mismatch spot count and classification |
| 13239 | 2023.02.27 2023.02.28 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N33W37 | 0140 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: N33W33 |
| 13241 | 2023.02.28 2023.03.01 |
1 | 11 | 6 | N29W22 | 0070 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N28W19 |
| 13240 | 2023.02.28 2023.03.01 |
9 | S09W49 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S22W25 SWPC on March 6 moved the location to near AR S8327 |
|||
| 13242 | 2023.03.01 2023.03.02 |
18 | 57 | 32 | N10W15 | 0245 | ESI | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N10W17 |
| S8326 | 2023.03.02 | S20W54 | |||||||||
| S8327 | 2023.03.02 | S09W51 |
 |
||||||||
| 13245 | 2023.03.02 2023.03.03 |
11 | 40 | 31 | S23E07 | 0440 | DHI | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0500 location: S22E10 |
| S8330 | 2023.03.03 | S17W01 | |||||||||
| S8331 | 2023.03.03 | S30W37 | |||||||||
| S8333 | 2023.03.04 | N28W59 | |||||||||
| 13246 | 2023.03.04 2023.03.05 |
1 | 5 | 2 | N23E28 | 0050 | HAX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N24E27 area: 0090 |
| S8335 | 2023.03.04 | N22W15 | |||||||||
| S8336 | 2023.03.04 | S08W07 | |||||||||
| 13247 | 2023.03.05 2023.03.06 |
3 | 22 | 9 | S24E41 | 0100 | CAO | DSI |
 |
 |
location: S22E43 |
| 13248 | 2023.03.05 2023.03.06 |
6 | 9 | 5 | N15W72 | 0030 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N15W73 |
| S8340 | 2023.03.05 | N28W44 | |||||||||
| S8341 | 2023.03.05 | 1 | 1 | S04W22 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8343 | 2023.03.06 | S12E09 | |||||||||
| 13249 | 2023.03.07 2023.03.07 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S12E61 | 0150 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S12E63 |
| S8346 | 2023.03.07 | N26E45 |
 |
||||||||
| S8347 | 2023.03.08 | 4 | 1 | N12W56 | 0012 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8348 | 2023.03.08 | 3 | 2 | N22E70 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S8349 | 2023.03.08 | 1 | 1 | S13E82 | 0100 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S8350 | 2023.03.08 | 2 | N13E23 | 0002 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 46 | 170 | 96 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 146 | 330 | 236 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 95 | 224 | 150 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 161 | 182 | 190 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (SC24 solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (SC24 peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | 92.3 (+5.8) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.0 projected, +4.7) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.2 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.0 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.8 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
| 2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (113.8 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
| 2023.02 | 167.2 | 163.2 | 110.9 | (118.9 projected, +5.1) | 14.6 |
| 2023.03 | 177.3 (1) | 35.3 (2A) / 136.9 (2B) / 159.7 (2C) | (122.0 projected, +3.1) | (13.5) | |
| 2023.04 | (127.4 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (133.2 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (136.4 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.07 | (135.9 projected, -0.5) | ||||
| 2023.08 | (136.9 projected, +1.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
